The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday announced that the Southwest Monsoon, which brings more than 75 per cent of rainfall to the country, is going to be normal in 2021.
The Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country is most likely to be normal – 96 to 104 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall.
Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
“This is good news for the country. After two years of above-normal monsoon rainfall, we are likely to receive normal monsoon rain this year. This will help India to have a good agricultural crop output,” said Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, at an online conference on Friday.
La Niña conditions, which started in 2020, have started weakening, Rajeevan said.
“La Niña conditions are likely to prevail only till May so we will transition to ENSO neutral conditions during monsoon. There is very little chance of El Niño conditions developing during monsoon months. There is a very small probability of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) negative conditions developing during monsoon. So these conditions are likely to lead to a normal monsoon this year.”
Surjitt Sahani
