Hospitalizations during a possible third wave could be much lesser due to high immunity, the pace of vaccinations but a more virulent form of virus could be a key risk, that’s the word coming in from IIT Prof Manindra Agrawal who worked on the SUTRA Model. 3rd wave of covid-19 may see half the cases recorded during the second surge and infection can hit its peak between October-November if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, according to the model.
While talking to ET NOW, Manindra Agrawal, Professor, IIT Kanpur said, “In the most pessimistic scenario, if we assume that there will be an even more infectious variant than the current one, in that case, the number of cases might touch 1.5 lakh per day. However, a number of such reported cases will be mild due to already developed immunity or vaccination.”
So, will we see life getting back to normal soon and can the delta variant become a roadblock in the recovery process? According to Professor Agrawal, “Delta variant has been around in India since February 2021, so people are mostly immunised against it and therefore don’t see the delta variant leading to more damage. According to our model, by August we can go back to our normal lives.”
Can another wave be prevented as the Central government pushes the paddle to speed up India’s vaccination drive? The model also says as vaccination progresses, the possibility of a third or fourth wave will be less. “It is expected that in July we will administer 13-14 cr doses, In August it will be 20+ cr, so, if we manage to keep up the pace, it will be very useful. On the other hand, if the numbers drop below 10 cr vaccine doses a month, we will have a slightly more tough situation,” adds Prof. Manindra Agrawal.
Surjitt Sahani
